The Bruins don’t need to look very far when it comes to gathering intel on the last remaining club standing between them and a Stanley Cup championship.
Sure, Bruce Cassidy and his staff have an inundation of film on the St. Louis Blues, as well as numerous notes from the teams’ two regular-season matchups back in January and February.
But if they need to draw from other sources as they brace for Game 1 against St. Louis on Monday night, the Bruins very well could just take a look in the mirror.
The Blues may not have the firepower up front that the Maple Leafs had at their disposal when they peppered Tuukka Rask in the opening round of the playoffs, nor does Craig Berube’s team roll out the same aggressive, plus shot-share system that Rod Brind’Amour and the Hurricanes leaned on in the Eastern Conference Final.
But if there’s one thing that St. Louis has proven during this surge from the cellar of the NHL standings in January to just four wins away from its first title — it’s that the Blues are more than capable to take a punch, and throw one right back.
“I think they're very similar to us in the way they play,” Cassidy said of the Blues. “Forechecking team, they play a pretty north-south game. Use all four lines, fourth line in particular gets a lot of assignments, like ours. Goaltenders are both playing excellent. Their D is bigger than ours, but both can move the puck. So I expect the games to be, probably low-scoring and more physical. I think they're a bit of our twin.”
Boston’s arduous 10-day break from game action might be crawling along at a snail’s pace, but thankfully there’s plenty to digest going into a best-of-seven series featuring a pair of tenacious, defense-focused clubs.
Here are 10 questions facing both the Bruins and Blues going into their matchup in the 2019 Stanley Cup Final.
1. Who blinks first in net?
Jordan Binnington has stolen plenty of headlines ever since he took over the helm as St. Louis’ go-to man between the pipes — and for good reason. He only played 32 games in his rookie campaign, but Binnington still earned a spot as a Calder Trophy Finalist after playing a major role in orchestrating the Blues’ 30-10-5 run over the final four months of the regular season.
During that stretch, he went 24-5-1 while generating a league-leading 1.89 goals-against average and a .927 save percentage. He’s continued to hold his own during the Blues’ march to a Cup Final — becoming just the sixth netminder in NHL history to win at least 12 playoff games in a rookie campaign, while boasting a .914 save percentage and a shutout.
If the Blues are going to topple the Bruins and clinch their first Stanley Cup title, they’re going to need Binnington to steal a couple of games, and he has the moxie to do it.
But even at Binnington’s best — Tuukka Rask still might be even better.
The case can certainly be made that this spring is the best stretch that Rask has played since donning a black and gold sweater 12 years ago, as the 32-year-old netminder leads all playoff goalies with a .942 save percentage and a 1.84 goals-against average, while posting a pair of shutouts in clinching victories over both Columbus and Carolina.
Since Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semifinal, Rask has managed to reach another level when it comes to his production between the pipes, winning seven straight games and posting a .961 save percentage.
Where Rask has the major edge over Binnington lies in the ability to turn aside high-danger scoring chances — many of which are generated in Grade-A areas around the crease and in the low slot. Among goalies this postseason that have logged at least 10 games played, Rask paces the pack with a .918 save percentage on high-danger looks, while Binnington ranks sixth overall with a HDSV% of just .824.
It’s a major reason why Binnington’s goals saved above average rate this postseason ranks ninth overall at 0.82, while Rask remains in first with GSAA of 6.93. In other words, Binnington has been pretty solid. When factoring in shot quality and volume, Binnington has stopped close to a goal above what an average netminder would make this postseason. But Rask has saved almost seven times that rate, despite playing in two fewer games.
So far, St. Louis’ D corps has done a great job this postseason when it comes to keeping opposing skaters to the outside and away from the slot, limiting rebound chances down low against Binnington.
Look for the Bruins to approach Binnington in a similar way to how they eventually toppled Sergei Bobrovsky in the Eastern Conference Semifinal — plant skaters willing to endure some punishment like David Backes and Jake DeBrusk down low and make Binnington work on loose pucks and rebounds. He can’t stop ‘em all.
Jordan Binnington, Brad Marchand (Scott Rovak/NHLI via Getty Images)
“Their D was sagging, so maybe we were turning down some shots and driving through the middle to create some anxiety for him. I think as the series went on, we figured that part of it out. Forced him to control his rebounds and then recover. And that's what eventually broke him down. But some of it is just quality shots. Sooner or later, we've got good players in our room. They're going to get their goals."
2. Who wins the slot battle?
Bruce Cassidy has harped all postseason long on the Bruins’ need to get inside against the opposition to generate quality looks – and
when it comes to how they factor analytics into their day-to-day operations.
"I do believe that teams that control the slot battle — and I think that’s eye test, too, but the numbers really back that up — win the majority of the games," Cassidy said. "I think, for me, you keep them out of the prime scoring area and you get to the prime scoring area, that's a big determinant, 5v5 obviously. … The rebound chances, that means you're getting inside.
“I guess that's the term, getting inside. We had trouble last year with Tampa. This year, we've been better. I thought we did a good job against Carolina, keeping them to the outside and whether you saw it the same way, when you were watching the game, I do believe it was one of the reasons why we didn't give up a ton of goals. Obviously, Tuukka
was another, specifically on their power play."
During the Eastern Conference Final, Boston imposed its will against the Hurricanes when it comes to the slot — scoring five 5v5 goals against
Petr Mrazek
and
Curtis McElhinney
while Carolina … not so much down the other end of the ice.
Not much is going to change when it comes to Boston’s strategy for this series against St. Louis, as slot battles very well might stand as 1B when it comes to the top determinants in this series (1A being the play in net, of course).
St. Louis has done a good job when it comes to keeping skaters away from the slot (and more importantly, away from Binnington) — with 12 other playoff goalies facing a higher Rebound Attempts per 60 Minutes rate than the Blues goalie (3.120).
Getting inside against St. Louis is easier said than done against a Blues D corps that is more than happy to throw its weight around. Boston’s blue line has a couple of big bodies in
Zdeno Chara
and
Brandon Carlo
, but five of the Blues’ six starting defenseman measure out at 6-foot-3 or taller — headlined by 6-foot-6
Colton Parayko
.
Boston’s forecheck is going to have its work cut out for it when it comes to winning puck battles against big bodies like Parayko and
Alex Pietrangelo
, but if Boston is able to cycle the puck around and get St. Louis’ D to start chasing, Grade-A ice is going to open up.
So far this postseason, the average distance for goals scored against Binnington has been from just 19 feet away from the net — much closer than the average shot distance he’s faced (35 feet). Only five goalies this postseason have a lower average goal distance than Binnington (
Philipp Grubauer, Robin Lehner, Marc-Andre Fleury, Aaron Dell
and
Braden Holtby
).
The goals will come if Boston is able to get inside — getting there is going to be the challenge, though.
“We'd like to think we could,” Cassidy said of getting inside against the Blues’ defense. “Columbus had big D. (St. Louis has) big D. They're here for a reason. That's the task in front of us, to score goals. We expect to be good on the power play — whether that happens or not — we're going to have to execute. That's one area that we've been good at generating offense. 5v5 yes, we've got to get inside. We talked about that last year, internally, as a team. That we weren't able to do that well enough.
“This year, it's been a focus on doing a better job. It's certainly going to be a key to this series. If we don't, we're going to have a tough time scoring. And if you have a tough time scoring, you've got to win a lot of 1-0, 2-1 games. So far, we've been able to get out of that, having to win those."
3. Who can land punches against Patrice Bergeron & Ryan O'Reilly?
It’s been put on the backburner a bit given Boston’s current seven-game win streak, but Bergeron lack of production at times during 5v5 play in the offensive zone has sprouted up as a recurring topic of conversation throughout the B’s playoff run.
Until Game 4 against Carolina, Bergeron had yet to score a 5v5 goal, while he’s still only recorded one primary assist in 219:31 of 5v5 TOI this postseason. Of course, he’s offset that with his production on the power play — with his six goals on the man advantage during the playoffs standing as the second most for a Bruin through one postseason, trailing only
Cam Neely’s
nine tallies in 1991.
And when you add in his efforts down the other end of the ice, well ... Bergeron could opt to play without a stick in the O-zone and still leave a mighty positive impact for the B’s.
Cassidy’s trump card when it comes to negating the opposing team’s top scoring threat, Bergeron has been downright unconscious in the D-zone this postseason. Let’s throw it back to what might be my favorite tweet of this playoff run so far.
That’s just absurd. He didn’t let up in the Eastern Conference Final, either. In 15:30 of 5v5 TOI in which Bergeron was out on the ice at the same time as
Sebastian Aho,
the Hurricanes only managed to generate two shot
attempts
. And zero shots on goal.
I mean, c’mon.
Bergeron will once again have his work cut out for him in the Stanley Cup Final, with the B’s top line of Bergeron,
Brad Marchand
and
David Pastrnak
likely set to match up against St. Louis’ trio of
Jaden Schwartz, Brayden Schenn
and
Vladimir Tarasenko
. Or rather, is it the other way around, because Bergeron and Co. aren’t budging one bit in the D zone.
And if they can continue to roll on offense as they did in Game 4 against Carolina (a combined four goals and eight points), that line — when coupled with Rask — might be all that Boston needs to close out a best-of-seven series. They’re that good.
But St. Louis has its own shutdown option up front in the form of center
Ryan O’Reilly,
who led the Blues in scoring during the regular season (77 points over 82 games) while getting the nod as Selke Trophy finalist for his defensive efforts.
With a 56.9% success rate at faceoffs and the Blues boasting a .939 on-ice save percentage when O’Reilly is was on the ice for even strength play during the regular season, the 28-year-old pivot has settled into a groove on St. Louis’ second line with
Sammy Blais
and
David Perron
during the playoffs.
In 86:24 of 5v5 TOI in which
has rolled out that line, the Blues have scored five goals — and surrendered zero.
David Krejci
’s line could get plenty of reps matched up against O’Reilly, although it wouldn’t come as much of a surprise if Berube offers to slot his shutdown line against Bergeron’s crew once the series heads west to St. Louis. Something’s gotta give, right?
4. Which fourth line can impose its will?
Both the Bruins and Blues are more than willing to engage in a war of attrition over the course of a best-of-seven series, and plenty of that will be carried out by both clubs’ checking lines.
The Bruins suffered a tough blow in the Eastern Conference Finals, as
Chris Wagner’s
postseason is likely over after blocking a shot and suffering a wrist/hand injury during Game 3 at PNC Arena. Aside from Wagner’s tangible production during the series (two goals against Carolina), the trio of
Joakim Nordstrom, Sean Kuraly
and Wagner seemed to be hitting their stride at the perfect time.
During that Game 3 victory, a bout in which the Bergeron and Krejci lines combined for three 5v5 high-danger scoring chances, the Kuraly line generated four — with Boston attempting 13 shots during the 8:24 of 5v5 TOI in which the fourth line was out skating.
Sean Kuraly, Calvin de Haan (Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
Still, Wagner’s replacement in
Noel Acciari
will be able to keep that line’s hard-hitting ways intact — as the 20-52-55 line has only relinquished one 5v5 goal, despite the fact that only 20.83% of their faceoffs have come in the offensive zone.
The Blues’ checking line of
Ivan Barbashev, Oskar Sundqvist
and
Alexander Steen
are no joke either. They have scored three 5v5 goals and surrendered just one down the other end of the ice in 86:43 of 5v5 TOI together this postseason.
Both lines will play key roles in their respective clubs’ efforts when it comes to establishing themselves on the forecheck and retrieving pucks, but don’t be so quick to label these six skaters as just simple, north-south skaters.
There’s plenty of speed and skill to go around on both lines — and a player that can close gaps in a hurry like Kuraly (especially when operating as the F3 on the forecheck) can make something out of nothing real quick in the O-zone.
5. Is Jake DeBrusk in line for a breakout?
While players like
Charlie Coyle
(six goals, 12 points this postseason) and
Marcus Johansson
(three goals, nine points this postseason) have exceeded expectations this spring, one player still looking to get into a groove is DeBrusk, who stormed onto the scene with a six-goal, eight-point playoff debut last season as a rookie.
This postseason, DeBrusk has been limited to just three goals over 17 games — with the energetic winger’s streaky side once again rearing its head. It hasn’t been due to a lack of effort on his part, as DeBrusk’s shot attempts have hit the net 86.21% of the time, while he boasts an expected goals mark of 4.56.
6. Can St. Louis halt Boston’s special-teams dominance?
So, the Blues PK may not allow stuff like
this
to happen down low.
But accounting for a skater down low might open up space for Bergeron (and his six power-play goals) to operate from his office at the bumper. Whether it be seam passes, netfront tips, high slot offerings and cycling from the blue line down to the half wall by
Torey Krug
and
Brad Marchand —
Boston’s power play can burn you in a number of ways.
One thing to note — St. Louis’ power play seems to be heating up as these playoffs roll on. Stuck in an 0-for-18 stretch at one point this postseason, the Blues’ man advantage went 5-for-15 over the final four games of the Western Conference Final.
7. How will the long layoff affect both teams?
It was inevitable that this had to be a question, right? We’ve already discussed this at BSJ both
and a
But given the fact that the Blues will now also go six days between games, it does lessen a couple of the concerns when it comes to the potential for Boston to come out flat in the opening minutes of Game 1 on Monday.
It wouldn’t come as much of a surprise if both clubs need to take some time to get their feet under them on Monday before the pace really starts to ramp up, but given the fact that the Bruins have sandwiched in six practices
during their long layoff, Boston is going to be as ready as it can be for puck drop next week.
“We’re trying to get our work done,” Cassidy said following the scrimmage. “That was the message. We can’t get out there and have it like a summer hockey league game. You’re going to make some plays but try to stay detailed as best you can. Sometimes in these environments, you want to do a little more, so we got a little bit of both, but we got our work done. Thanks to the fans for coming out. Supports a good cause and got to see some decent players playing, getting ready to go into the Final, so it’s a win-win.”
8. How do the Bruins contain Jaden Schwartz?
Gotta say, I didn’t expect to be typing a headline like this going into the postseason.
After scoring just 11 goals over 69 games in the regular season, Schwartz has been a monster during this Cup run for St. Louis — tallying 12 goals (2nd in NHL) over 19 playoff matchups. That’s just one behind
Brett Hull’s
postseason record from 1990.
A mainstay on the Blues’ top line now, Schwartz has especially been effective during 5v5 play, with just one of his strikes coming on the man advantage. Most likely, it will be the Bergeron line that will be tasked with accounting for Schwartz? But on the blue line?
For most of Boston’s playoff bouts at TD Garden, Cassidy has opted to roll out his second pairing of
Torey Krug
and
Brandon Carlo
with Bergeron’s line, allowing
Charlie McAvoy
and
Zdeno Chara
to put out any fires on another defensive assignment, most likely the other opposing top-six option.
Despite handling some hefty assignments, Carlo-Krug have been a strong group so far this postseason, with Boston holding an 8-6 edge in goals scored during their 219 minutes of 5v5 TOI together.
Carlo in particular will be crucial in terms of snuffing out scoring chances down low and steering skaters away from the slot — and area that Schwartz has capitalized in through the playoffs. However, Cassidy made a point earlier this week to not discount Krug’s play away from the O-zone during this Cup run.
“They've been dynamite for us,” Cassidy said of the Krug-Carlo pairing: “I think Torey has been a little bit under-appreciated this playoff with his ability to defend, to be quite honest. You're always going to get the power-play acumen. He's going to make his breakout passes, but he's taking a lot of pride in playing on the other side of the puck a lot. If you watch video, he's boxing out big guys every night, he's committed to that. He's not leaving the zone early, he's making sure the puck is going out of the zone before he is.
“All of the little things that make a good defensive defenseman, the commitment to stay in the battle, he's been excellent. Brando, we know. He's going to give us that part of it.”
It’s going to take a total defensive commitment in order to keep players like Schwartz and Tarasenko (who tallied a point in all six games of the WCF) off the board. Carlo and Krug should be up to the task.
9. Who will be an X-factor for both clubs?
Bruins:
Boston’s third line has been a matchup nightmare all postseason for the opposing team — with the trio of Johansson, Coyle and
Danton Heinen
combining for five goals scored (and one goal against) during 77 minutes of 5v5 TOI together. With teams focusing most of their efforts on slowing down Krejci and Bergeron,
— with their 5v5 goals for per 60 min. rate (3.21) leading all B’s forward lines that have played at least 50 minutes of 5v5 TOI together.
Heinen, in particular, will be key for this club, as he’s helped transform that third line into a shutdown trio given his plus-defensive play. Out on the ice for just two 5v5 goals against
this entire postseason
, Heinen boasts an absurd goals against per 60 min. rate of 0.54. If Heinen can continue to lock down opposing scoring chances — while burying chances of his own (two goals, five assists over 17 games) — then an already surging third line could hit another level, and create a ton of headaches for the Blues.
Charlie Coyle and Danton Heinen
Blues:
Might as well fight fire with fire when it comes to bottom-six lines if you’re the Blues, because Berube’s third line of
Robert Thomas, Patrick Maroon
and
Tyler Bozak
have also been plenty productive this postseason as well. Generating seven goals over 167 minutes of 5v5 TOI together, the Bozak line is a key cog in St. Louis’ scoring bunch, while Maroon, in particular, will be counted on to throw his weight around as part of a stingy Blues forecheck. When the 6-foot-3, 225-pound Marron has his legs going, he can be a wrecking ball on the ice — and will be counted on to hound the puck and close gaps, especially against a defenseman like
Zdeno Chara
, who has had a couple of hiccups this postseason when pressured with the puck.
Honorable Mentions:
Connor Clifton
&
Vince Dunn
(who just resumed skating on Friday after taking a puck to the head during Game 3 against San Jose)
10. Who wins it?:
,
and the Bruins hoist the Stanley Cup after six low-scoring, hard-fought games against the Blues.
Stats via
,
and
